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Money Duck

28
skips
72
questions

Act One

• Dan Meyer

May 05, 2014

What price would you pay for the Money Duck?

• Teacher note
Have students share their responses with their neighbors. Find the high and low in the class.

Act Two

• 1.

What information would be useful to know here?

• 2.

What do you think this mathematical model is trying to tell you about Money Ducks?

• ImageProbability Distribution Image
• 3.

Which of these probability distributions are possible and which are impossible? Why? How do you know?

• ImageImpossible & Possible Distributions
• 4.

If you're selling Money Ducks for \$5, why is each of these distributions bad for business?

• 5.

Make up a price for each of these distributions so that the buyer and seller won't gain or lose money over the long run.

• ImagePrice the Distributions
• Teacher note
This is your moment to teach Expected Value. The ball is on the tee. They've done a lot of informal thinking about EV. Now you can formalize it.
• 6.

What is the expected value of each of these distributions?

• ImageCalculate Expected Value
• FileHandout w/ All These Questions

Act Three

• Teacher note

1. It tells you all the possible events for the Money Duck and the likelihood of each event.

2. B and C are impossible because the total probability exceeds 100%. D is impossible because the total probability doesn't reach 100%.

5.

A: \$6.5

B: \$30.60

C: \$21.35

D: \$17.20

Sequel